TL;DR
- OpenSea, Blur, X2Y2, and LooksRare currently hold market shares of 36.77%, 28.05%, 24.35%, and 7.42%, respectively.
- After removing wash trading, real market shares adjust to 59.1% (OpenSea), 19.5% (Blur), 13.2% (X2Y2), and 2.9% (LooksRare).
- Blur’s estimated FDV ranges between $382M–$458M.
Introduction
Blur is set to launch its platform token on February 14, converting user points into tokens. With no official tokenomics released, this analysis focuses on comparative valuation against peers like X2Y2 and LooksRare, while accounting for wash trading distortions.
1. Industry Competition Overview
Key Players
- Ethereum-based NFT marketplaces: OpenSea (59.1% real share), Blur (19.5%), X2Y2 (13.2%), LooksRare (2.9%).
- Wash trading impact: Overstated volumes skew rankings; Blur’s actual交易量 is ~98,600 ETH/month (vs. 299,224 ETH for OpenSea).
Methodology for Real Volume Calculation
- X2Y2/LooksRare: Excluded circular trades (e.g., Meebits flip transactions).
- Blur: Estimated via gas/transaction ratios, assuming 1.5× higher客单价 than OpenSea.
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2. Valuation Metrics
Assumptions
- OpenSea’s 2022 valuation: $13B (adjusted to $3B for current market conditions).
- Blur’s hypothetical fee structure: 0.5% (post-token launch).
P/S and P/E Comparisons
| Platform | P/S (Adjusted) | P/E (Adjusted) |
|------------|---------------|----------------|
| OpenSea | 0.51 | 20.25 |
| X2Y2 | 0.05 | 25.65 |
| LooksRare| 0.25 | 70.00 |
Blur’s projected FDV:
- P/S-based: $204M–$2.29B.
- P/E-based: $204M–$458M (preferred metric due to fee收入 stability).
Final Estimate: $382M–$458M (aligned with介于 LooksRare and OpenSea).
3. Risk Factors
Token Model Uncertainty
- Unclear utility, fee capture机制, or initial circulation (e.g., airdrop-dominated supply).
Competitive Threats
- OpenSea’s exclusivity协议 forces Blur to use Seaport合约, potentially forfeiting fee revenue.
- Long-term sustainability depends on reducing reliance on incentivized trading.
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FAQ
Q1: How does Blur’s valuation compare to OpenSea?
A1: Blur’s FDV is estimated at 12–15% of OpenSea’s adjusted $3B valuation, reflecting its smaller real market share.
Q2: Why prioritize P/E over P/S?
A2: Fee income (P/E) better reflects sustainable value amid volatile交易量.
Q3: What’s the biggest risk for Blur’s token?
A3: Failure to monetize transactions if Seaport usage prevents fee capture.