Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) likely peaked, signaling a potential shift to altcoin outperformance.
- Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) nears all-time highs, with a 50% surge in November.
- USDT Dominance broke down from a parallel channel, indicating reduced stablecoin demand and potential altcoin liquidity inflows.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) Correction Signals Altcoin Season
The weekly BTCD chart reveals a possible top formation:
- Five-wave upward movement since September 2022 peaked at 61.53%, slightly above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
- Bearish deviations: BTCD fell back into an ascending wedge after a false breakout, with two consecutive bearish weekly candlesticks.
- Support level: A breakdown could push BTCD toward 52%, aligning with the completion of an ending diagonal pattern (Wave 5).
Technical indicators:
- RSI and MACD show bearish divergences.
- MACD recently executed a bearish cross.
👉 Bitcoin Dominance analysis suggests altcoin season may begin as BTC’s dominance wanes.
Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) Nears Parabolic Rally
November surge: ALTCAP rose 50%, breaking a long-term descending parallel channel.
- Wave count: Fifth wave (white) underway since January 2023, with sub-wave three (black) likely fueling rapid gains.
- Target: $2.14–$2.19 trillion (2.61 external Fibonacci retracement of Wave 4).
Bullish indicators:
- RSI and MACD above 50 and 0, respectively.
- Historical parallels to 2020 suggest a potential parabolic rally.
USDT Dominance Breakdown Supports Altcoin Liquidity
Key developments:
- USDT Dominance collapsed below 4.75% support after exiting an ascending parallel channel.
- Yearly lows: Approaching 3.79%, with potential to revisit 2.80% (2021 levels).
Bearish momentum:
- RSI and MACD in decline, though unconfirmed bullish divergence may emerge.
Analyst Sentiment: Altseason Imminent
- Intuitio: Final Bitcoin decline before "easy mode" altcoin buying.
- IncomeSharks: ETH strength signals market health.
- Crypto Rover: ALTCAP mirroring 2020’s pre-parabolic pattern.
- Mikybull: Altseason projected December 2024–March 2025.
👉 ETH/BTC bottoming analysis highlights Ethereum’s potential catch-up rally.
FAQ
Q: What triggers altcoin season?
A: Bitcoin dominance decline, ALTCAP surges, and stablecoin liquidity shifts collectively signal altcoin outperformance.
Q: How long do altseasons typically last?
A: Historical cycles (e.g., 2020–2021) suggest 3–6 months of sustained altcoin rallies.
Q: Which altcoins lead during altseason?
A: ETH, SOL, and meme coins often rally early, followed by mid-cap projects.
Q: Is USDT Dominance a reliable indicator?
A: Yes—declining USDT Dominance often precedes increased altcoin trading volume.
Conclusion
Three converging charts—BTCD correction, ALTCAP breakout, and USDT Dominance collapse—signal the start of altcoin season. Traders should monitor ETH/BTC trends and meme coin volatility while diversifying into fundamentally strong altcoins.
Disclaimer: This content is informational only. Consult a financial advisor before investing. Cryptocurrencies are volatile; past performance ≠future results.