Cryptocurrency analyst Tony Severino highlights that Bitcoin recently completed a TD9 sell setup on its quarterly candlestick chart, indicating a potential four-year timeline to achieve its $149,000 price target. Despite recent modest gains fueled by bullish sentiment, historical patterns from 2017 and 2014 reveal similar prolonged consolidation phases before breaking key resistance levels.
Key Takeaways
- TD9 Signal Insight: The TD9 indicator suggests Bitcoin may require up to four years to reach $149,490, based on historical trends.
- Current Price Action: Bitcoin trades at $109,330 (36% below target), with a projected timeline extending to July 2029.
- Historical Precedents: Past TD9 setups (2014, 2017) saw BTC taking 3.5–4 years to surpass projected TD risk levels.
Understanding the TD9 Setup
What Is TD9?
The TD9 is a component of the TD Sequential indicator, designed to identify:
- Trend exhaustion
- Potential reversals
- Price targets (TD risk levels)
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Current Projection
Severino’s analysis notes:
- TD Risk Level: $149,490 (Bitcoin’s next major target).
- Timeframe: ~4 years (based on 2014 and 2017 cycles).
| Cycle Year | TD Risk Level | Time to Break Target |
|------------|--------------|----------------------|
| 2014 | $2,400 | 3.5 years |
| 2017 | $35,000 | 4 years |
| 2025 | $149,490 | Projected 4 years |
Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory
Recent Performance
- 7-Day Trend: +1.5% ($105,430 → $109,600).
- 24-Hour Action: Tests support at $108,200–$108,800 before rising 2% to $109,330.
Long-Term Outlook
If the TD9 pattern holds:
- Phase 1 (2025–2027): Gradual accumulation near $100,000–$120,000.
- Phase 2 (2028–2029): Breakout toward $149,490, mirroring past cycles.
FAQs
1. Why does the TD9 suggest a four-year timeline?
Historical data shows Bitcoin consistently takes 3.5–4 years to surpass TD risk levels after a TD9 sell setup.
2. Could external factors accelerate Bitcoin’s growth?
While possible (e.g., institutional adoption, regulatory shifts), the TD9 focuses on technical patterns rather than fundamental drivers.
3. Is $149,490 a realistic target?
Yes—past TD risk levels (e.g., $35,000 in 2017) were eventually exceeded, validating the indicator’s long-term accuracy.
4. How should traders respond to this analysis?
- Short-term: Monitor support/resistance levels ($108,800 and $112,000).
- Long-term: Consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin’s TD9 setup underscores a patient, multi-year journey toward $149,490, aligned with historical trends. While short-term volatility persists, the broader trajectory remains bullish for strategic investors.
Disclaimer: This analysis references data from TradingView and is for educational purposes only.
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