Market Overview
Last week, Bitcoin opened at approximately $39,450** and closed around **$38,470, marking a 2.5% weekly decline. The price fluctuated between $37,300** (weekly low) and **$40,000 (brief high), reflecting continued bearish momentum. Trading volume remains subdued, indicating cautious market participation. This report analyzes critical on-chain metrics to identify key support/resistance levels and market trends.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has been in a downtrend channel since failing to break the $48,000 resistance earlier this year. With the Federal Reserve's hawkish rate hikes exacerbating the decline, BTC has now logged five consecutive weeks of losses.
- Short-term support: $38,000
- Immediate resistance: $39,700
On-Chain Data Insights
Cost Basis Breakdown
- Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis: $46,800 (currently below this level).
- Realized Price: $24,500 (long-term safety net if severe downtrend occurs).
- Long-Term Holder (LTH) Cost Basis: $13,000 (lowest among cohorts).
The STH/LTH cost basis ratio suggests prolonged accumulation by long-term investors, typical of sideways markets. However, macroeconomic tightening has shifted this phase into a downward trajectory.
UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD)
The URPD metric highlights UTXO creation prices, revealing strong support at $37.5K–$38K. This zone acts as a critical floor for current prices.
Monthly Returns
Monthly returns have oscillated since June 2021, indicating extended consolidation. A breakout may emerge after 1–2 more cycles of volatility compression.
Percentage of Addresses in Profit
Only ~60% of addresses are currently profitable—below the 70% level seen during May 2021’s panic. A drop below 60% could trigger a steeper decline toward the $24.5K realized price support.
Derivatives Market
Options Open Interest (OI)
OI declined sharply, signaling risk aversion among traders. Factors include:
- Uncertainty around the $37K support vs. downward pressure.
- Low trading volume stifling momentum.
- Macro risks (Fed rate hikes, equity market instability).
Options OI by Strike Price
- Put OI: Concentrated at $37K–$38K (support zone).
- Call OI: Evenly distributed at $39K–$41K (resistance zone).
Crypto & Macro News
- Central African Republic adopts Bitcoin as legal tender (second after El Salvador).
- Solana mainnet halted on May 1; block production paused indefinitely.
- Goldman Sachs issues first Bitcoin-collateralized loan.
- DEUS Finance (Fantom) hacked: $1,340 stolen, token price dropped 15%.
FAQs
1. What’s Bitcoin’s strongest support level?
The $37.5K–$38K UTXO cluster and $24.5K realized price are critical floors.
2. Why is options OI declining?
Investors are reducing exposure due to macroeconomic uncertainty and muted market momentum.
3. When might Bitcoin exit its consolidation phase?
Monthly return patterns suggest a potential breakout after 1–2 more volatility cycles.
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4. How does the STH/LTH cost basis ratio impact the market?
A low ratio signals accumulation by long-term holders, often preceding bullish reversals.
5. What happens if address profitability falls below 60%?
A breach could accelerate selling pressure, targeting $24.5K.
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