Key Takeaways
- The "Trump Trade" momentum in Bitcoin may have temporarily ended
- $98,000 resistance is the critical level to watch for a new bullish phase
- Technical targets: $110,000 upon breakout (with risk of $80K if support fails)
- Macro liquidity and reduced STH selling pressure could fuel 2025 upside
Market Outlook: Technical and Fundamental Drivers
1. Technical Analysis Perspective
Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggests Bitcoin must decisively break above $98,000 to confirm a renewed uptrend. Notable observations:
Bullish Scenario:
- Breakthrough at $98K may trigger a rapid move toward **$110,000** (DonAlt’s projection)
- Supported by improving liquidity conditions (GMI Total Liquidity Index)
Bearish Warning:
- A drop below **$90,000 support** could lead to a deeper correction toward $80K
👉 Discover how macro trends impact crypto markets
2. Fundamental Catalysts
Sina G (21st Capital) highlights these factors influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory:
- Reduced Selling Pressure: Short-term holder (STH) profit-taking slowed post-November
- Institutional Inflows: Projected $2 trillion new investments in 2025, with ~10% potentially entering Bitcoin
- Monetary Policy Tailwinds: Federal Reserve actions may expand global money supply to $127 trillion, boosting asset prices
FAQ: Bitcoin Price Dynamics
Q: What defines the "Trump Trade" in crypto markets?
A: Refers to market optimism tied to policies perceived as crypto-friendly during Trump’s presidency, now facing consolidation.
Q: Why is $98,000 psychologically significant?
A: It represents a historic resistance level where previous rallies stalled; breaking it signals renewed institutional confidence.
Q: How does macro liquidity affect Bitcoin?
A: Increased money supply often correlates with higher BTC prices as investors hedge against inflation.
👉 Explore real-time Bitcoin market data
Strategic Implications for Traders
- Watch $98K Breakout: A weekly close above this level could accelerate buying momentum.
- Monitor Support Levels: $90K acts as critical defense; losing it may prompt stop-loss triggers.
- Long-Term Holders (LTH) Advantage: Reduced STH activity suggests stronger hands now dominate supply.
Note: This analysis excludes speculative or politically sensitive content, focusing solely on verifiable market trends.