SEC Recognizes Bitwise's XRP ETF Filing
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged Bitwise's application for an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), marking a significant step toward potential approval.
Key points:
- The SEC's acknowledgment opens a 240-day window for final decision-making.
- Investors can submit comments within 21 days of the filing's publication.
- Grayscale and 21Shares' XRP ETF applications were previously recognized, while WisdomTree and Canary Capital's filings remain pending.
Despite this progress, XRP's price dropped 3% on Tuesday amid concerns about the ETF's commercial viability. Industry analysts highlight three core challenges:
- Weak Revenue Metrics: The XRP Ledger generated only $1.15M in 2024 fees vs. Ethereum's $1B+.
- Institutional Hesitation: Many investors remain focused on Bitcoin/ETH ETFs.
- Supply Pressure: Ripple's Treasury holds 4.485B XRP, with 38.9B in escrow—potential sell-side risks.
Bloomberg analysts estimate a 65% approval probability despite ongoing SEC vs. Ripple litigation.
XRP Technical Analysis: Critical Support Test Ahead
Price Action Overview
- Recent Drop: XRP fell ~10% after rejection at the symmetrical triangle's upper boundary.
Key Levels:
- Support: $2.17 (triangle baseline) → Breach could trigger fall to $1.96.
- Resistance: $2.72 (next upside target).
Market Indicators
| Metric | Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | Testing moving average | Potential downward bias |
| Stochastic Osc. | Below neutral | Bearish momentum |
| Futures Liquidation | $10.91M (24hr) | Increased volatility |
Scenario Planning
- Bullish: Hold $2.17 support → Rebound toward $2.72.
- Bearish: Close below $1.96 → Invalidates current structure.
FAQs: XRP ETF and Price Outlook
Q: Why is the XRP ETF controversial?
A: Concerns include low blockchain revenue, institutional adoption barriers, and Ripple's large XRP holdings potentially flooding the market.
Q: What makes the symmetrical triangle pattern significant?
A: It represents converging supply/demand—a breakout/breakdown determines the next major trend.
Q: How does SEC approval timing work?
A: The 240-day countdown starts at acknowledgment; final decisions often occur in the last 30 days.
Q: Should traders expect more volatility?
A: Yes. 👉 XRP's price sensitivity to ETF news suggests continued swings.
Market Context and Comparative Performance
While Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $15B+ in 2024, altcoin ETFs face skepticism. XRP must demonstrate:
- Clear utility beyond Ripple's cross-border payments
- Sustainable demand to absorb Treasury releases
- Institutional custody solutions to mitigate perceived risks
Historical precedent shows first-mover advantage matters—BTC/ETH ETFs captured 92% of crypto ETF volume this year.
Strategic Considerations for Investors
- Monitor Triangle Resolution: Technical traders await confirmation of support/resistance breaks.
- Track SEC Commentary: Public statements may reveal approval likelihood shifts.
- Assess Ripple's Treasury Activity: Unlocked XRP could alter supply dynamics.
👉 Expert analysis suggests that XRP needs sustained trading volume above $2.50 to support bullish scenarios.
Disclaimer: This content represents market analysis only. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. CFD trading carries substantial risk—may not be suitable for all investors.