Why Ethereum's Short-Term Price Movement Could Surprise Traders

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Over the past 15 days, ETH failed to close above $2,350, yet some traders remain hopeful that the February 6 rally could signal a more decisive trend reversal. Key factors under scrutiny include Solana’s network outage and significant Ethereum outflows from exchanges—events that may influence price dynamics. Traders also question whether ETH can reclaim the $2,650 level last observed on January 12.

Ethereum Dominates DApp Deposits and TVL

Solana’s 5-hour outage on February 6 disrupted block production, highlighting scalability challenges faced by Ethereum competitors. This incident reinforced Ethereum’s dominance in decentralized applications (DApps), where it holds 57.8% of the total value locked (TVL) market share at $34.8 billion. Including Layer 2 solutions like Polygon and Arbitrum, Ethereum’s dominance expands to 67.4%.

Despite concerns over high transaction fees (~$5.85 average), Ethereum recorded 382,490 active DApp addresses last week, led by Uniswap and OpenSea. When Layer 2 ecosystems are aggregated, active addresses surpass 2 million, per DappRadar.

Key Metrics Driving Ethereum’s Momentum

ETH Derivatives Reflect Balanced Demand

Futures Premium: ETH’s 1-month futures premium stabilized at 7% on February 6, signaling neutral leverage demand (Laevitas).
Options Market: The 25% Delta skew remains neutral (-7% to +7%), suggesting neither bullish nor bearish extremes.

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FAQs

Q: What caused Solana’s outage, and how does it affect Ethereum?
A: Solana’s block production halt underscored scalability issues, driving attention back to Ethereum’s reliability.

Q: Why are exchange reserves critical for ETH’s price?
A: Fewer liquid tokens on exchanges reduce sell-side pressure, potentially amplifying price spikes during demand surges.

Q: How does staking impact Ethereum’s valuation?
A: Increased staking locks supply, incentivizing long-term holding and supporting price stability.

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Conclusion

While ETH’s break above $2,350 sparked optimism, derivatives data reveals cautious trader sentiment. A sustained bullish move could catch professionals off guard, making Ethereum’s short-term trajectory a space to watch.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.