Key Metrics (March 17, 4 PM – March 24, 4 PM HKT)
- BTC/USD: +4.1% ($83,500 → $86,900)
- ETH/USD: +8.9% ($1,900 → $2,070)
BTC/USD Spot Technical Indicators
Price Stability and Resistance Levels
BTC’s realized volatility declined last week as prices stabilized within the $81.5K–$87.5K range. On March 24, the market tested a descending trendline resistance from late February’s peak. Key levels to watch:
- Upside: A breakout above $87.5K–$88K could retest resistance at $91K**, followed by **$93K. Sustained momentum may target the psychological $100K barrier.
- Downside: Strong support lies at $80K**, extending to **$77K with minor buy-side liquidity. A drop below $73.5K** (critical support) may trigger deeper correction toward **$60K–$65K, invalidating our bullish mid-term outlook.
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Mid-Term Bullish Case
We maintain a $115K–$125K price target over the coming months, assuming macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.
Market Themes
Macro Developments
- FOMC Meeting: Powell’s dovish tone eased hawkish fears, pulling the VIX index below 20 (from 29 two weeks prior).
- Tariff News: April 2 tariff updates hinted at targeted measures, fueling weekend risk-asset rallies. Market sentiment suggests asymmetric reactions—positive news may outweigh lingering uncertainties.
Crypto-Specific Catalysts
- Trump’s DAS Speech: A pre-recorded 5-minute video briefly lifted BTC to $87K before a weekend pullback. Prices later rebounded on favorable tariff headlines.
- ETH Breakout: ETH surged past $2K, demonstrating sustained bullish momentum against bearish resistance.
BTC Implied Volatility (IV)
Current Trends
- IV declined alongside subdued realized volatility (~40), nearing February lows.
- Outlook: We expect BTC’s realized volatility to stabilize in the 30–40 range, with occasional spikes to 50–60.
Term Structure Shifts
The IV curve steepened as short-term premiums unwound, reflecting:
- Fading policy-related uncertainty.
- Decoupling from S&P 500 volatility (VIX < 20).
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BTC Skew/Kurtosis
Skew Dynamics
- Short-term skew normalized as downside liquidation risks diminished.
- Longer-dated skew tilted upward due to sell-side pressure below spot prices.
Kurtosis Compression
- Kurtosis fell with IV compression and lower volatility-of-volatility.
- Watch for: Potential volatility spikes if BTC breaches the $80K–$90K range.
FAQ
1. Why did BTC’s volatility decline last week?
Improved macroeconomic clarity (FOMC, tariffs) and technical stabilization within a $6K range reduced market uncertainty.
2. What’s the significance of ETH breaking $2K?
It signals stronger bullish conviction, potentially attracting institutional interest and altcoin momentum.
3. How does VIX impact BTC’s IV?
While historically correlated, recent decoupling suggests BTC is forming independent volatility drivers.
4. What’s the next major BTC resistance?
A clean break above $88K** could pave the way for a **$91K retest.
Analytics by NonFungible Analytics.
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