As of June 9, the XRP price has risen by 4%, trading at $2.26 amid a broader cryptocurrency market recovery. This uptick aligns with Bitcoin's (BTC) rebound above $107,000. While the short-term outlook appears bullish, it hinges on BTC maintaining its upward momentum. A failure to do so could trigger declines across altcoins, including XRP, which faces mounting concerns about a potential drop below $2 due to its inability to sustainably breach a critical resistance level. Technical indicators and analyst forecasts further support this bearish scenario, suggesting a possible dip before any sustained recovery.
Why an XRP Price Crash Below $2 is Likely
The 4% intraday gain in XRP's price stems from the adoption of XRP Ledger by Web3 Salon. However, this temporary boost was halted at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2.27—a level XRP has struggled to surpass since late May. This repeated rejection underscores weak short-term sentiment, with investors quick to take profits near resistance levels.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) mirrors this trend, failing to close decisively above the 50 mean level. Such behavior indicates profit-taking pressure, even as the Ripple vs. SEC case progresses toward a potential update.
Key Technical Patterns and Analyst Insights
- Descending Triangle: XRP trades within a descending triangle, a typically bearish pattern. A breakdown below the lower trendline at $2.12 could push prices toward $1.79.
- Death Cross: The recent formation of a death cross—a bearish signal where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA—has further unsettled traders.
BitGet analyst Ryan Lee predicts a short-term decline to $1.70, stating:
"XRP, benefiting from regulatory clarity and institutional interest, shows bullish stability around $2 but risks a dip to $1.70 short-term; its long-term growth depends on legal outcomes, with prices likely ranging between $1.70–$3.69, averaging $2.50 by June 2025."
Risks from Overcrowded Long Positions
Coinglass data reveals excessive long positioning, which could exacerbate downside risks:
- Binance: Long/short ratio at 2.45, with 72% of derivative traders betting on price gains.
- OKX: 3 long positions for every short position.
Such skewed positioning increases vulnerability to a long squeeze, where cascading liquidations could accelerate declines toward $1.70 if unexpected selling pressure emerges.
Key Levels to Watch
- Support: $2.12 (lower trendline), $1.79 (next major support).
- Resistance: $2.27 (50-day SMA). A decisive close above this level could reignite bullish momentum.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. Why might XRP crash below $2?
Bearish technical patterns (descending triangle, death cross) and profit-taking near resistance levels ($2.27) increase downside risks.
2. What’s the critical resistance for XRP?
The 50-day SMA at $2.27. A sustained break above this level is needed to confirm bullish reversal.
3. How does long positioning affect XRP’s price?
Overcrowded longs raise the risk of a long squeeze, where liquidations could trigger rapid price declines.
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Conclusion
Despite today’s 4% gain, XRP faces significant bearish pressure. Analysts warn of a potential drop to $1.70, driven by technical breakdowns and overcrowded long positions. Traders should monitor the $2.12 support and BTC’s broader market influence for directional cues.
Disclaimer: This analysis reflects market conditions and the author’s perspective. Conduct independent research before investing.
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