Fetch.ai (FET) price currently hovers around $2.22, displaying exhaustion signs after its remarkable 587% rally in Q1 2024. Technical and on-chain indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with potential for further downward movement.
Key Market Observations
- Current Price Action: FET struggles below the $2.425–$2.583 resistance zone after a 55% crash from its all-time high of $3.489 (March 28).
- Market Structure Breakdown: The formation of lower highs and lows confirms bearish momentum.
- Underperforming AI Token: While competitors like Worldcoin surged 50% recently, FET failed to capitalize on Bitcoin's minor recovery to $64K.
👉 Discover how AI tokens are reshaping crypto markets
Technical Analysis
Resistance Levels and Potential Support
- Critical Resistance: $2.425–$2.583 (twice rejected)
- Demand Zone: $1.700–$1.805 (20% drop from current levels)
Conservative Scenario:
A retest of the demand zone could present buying opportunities for long-term investors.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Caution
1. MVRV Ratio Indicators
- 7-day MVRV: Peaked at 13% (sell signal territory), currently at 10% average profit.
- Implication: Short-term holders may liquidate positions, increasing sell pressure.
2. Network Growth Stagnation
New Address Creation: Flatlined since March, indicating:
- Low capital inflow
- Disinterest from new investors
Price Prediction Scenarios
| Scenario | Trigger | Target | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish | Continued resistance | $1.805 | High |
| Neutral | Hold current range | $2.200 | Medium |
| Bullish | Break above $2.583 | $3.489 (ATH) | Low |
FAQs
Q: Should I sell my FET holdings now?
A: With 7-day MVRV at 10% and weakening momentum, taking partial profits may be prudent.
Q: What would reverse FET's bearish trend?
A: A sustained break above $2.583 with accompanying volume could invalidate the downtrend.
Q: How does FET compare to other AI tokens?
A: Unlike Worldcoin's recent surge, FET shows relative weakness—suggesting sector rotation.
👉 Learn strategic exit points for volatile assets
Strategic Takeaways
- Short-Term Traders: Consider risk management given bearish technicals.
- Long-Term Investors: Watch the $1.805 support for accumulation opportunities.
- All Participants: Monitor Bitcoin's movement—a drop below $60K could accelerate FET's decline.
Final Note: Always cross-verify on-chain data with price action before making decisions.