Standard Chartered Bank's latest outlook report forecasts a historic second-half surge for Bitcoin (BTC), driven by three core catalysts: ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and favorable U.S. policy shifts. The bank projects BTC could reach $135,000 by Q3** and **$200,000 by year-end—nearly doubling its current ~$108,000 valuation.
According to Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, this rally marks a paradigm shift from past "halving cycle" patterns to a liquidity-driven market shaped by institutional participation.
Key Drivers Fueling Bitcoin's 2024 Bull Run
1. ETF and Corporate Buying Spree
Q2 2024 saw 245,000 BTC absorbed by ETFs and corporate treasuries, with demand expected to accelerate through Q3/Q4. Notably:
- Enterprise adoption expanded beyond MicroStrategy (MSTR), with new public companies collectively purchasing ~56,000 BTC—nearly matching MSTR's 69,000 BTC accumulation.
- ETF inflows totaled $12.4 billion in Q2, surpassing gold ETFs for the first time.
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2. Bitcoin as Macro Hedge
Geoffrey Kendrick highlights Bitcoin's growing role as a "macro asset":
- Investors increasingly favor BTC over gold during geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East instability).
- CME data shows ETF holders maintain net-long positions, disproving theories of speculative hedging.
3. Policy Tailwinds
Three potential regulatory catalysts could amplify gains:
- Fed leadership speculation: A Trump-nominated successor might accelerate rate cuts, boosting BTC.
- GENIUS Act passage: Mainstream stablecoin integration (USDC, RLUSD) could funnel more capital into crypto.
- Sovereign fund activity: 13F filings reveal early sovereign interest, with more disclosures expected by August.
Why the "Halving Cycle" Playbook Is Obsolete
Traditional post-halving price peaks (~500 days) no longer apply due to:
- Structural shifts: ETF/corporate buying now outweighs retail/miner-driven flows.
- Enhanced liquidity: Stablecoin inflows and long-term holder retention offset sell pressure.
Geoffrey Kendrick emphasizes:
"We're entering an era where supply constraints meet institutional liquidity—Bitcoin's price discovery is fundamentally rewired."
FAQ: Your Bitcoin Rally Questions Answered
❓ What’s driving Bitcoin’s 2024 price surge?
A: Triple forces—ETF demand, corporate adoption, and policy changes—are creating unprecedented institutional liquidity.
❓ How high could BTC realistically go this year?
A: Standard Chartered’s base case targets $135,000 by September and $200,000 by December.
❓ Is Bitcoin replacing gold as a hedge?
A: Data shows BTC absorbing capital from gold ETFs, but both assets may coexist in diversified portfolios.
❓ What risks could derail this rally?
A: Regulatory crackdowns or macroeconomic shocks remain possible, though current momentum appears resilient.
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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct independent research before making decisions.
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