Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching the pivotal $100,000 milestone as on-chain demand rebounds and bullish sentiment strengthens. Despite this upward momentum, ETF inflows in 2025 lag significantly behind 2024 levels, indicating subdued institutional participation.
Key Developments in Bitcoin’s May 2025 Performance
- 14% Price Surge: BTC gained 14% over the past 30 days, trading just 6.3% below $100,000.
- On-Chain Demand Revival: Apparent demand turned positive for the first time since February, signaling renewed accumulation.
- ETF Inflow Slowdown: Only 28,000 BTC added via US ETFs in 2025, far below 2024’s pace.
- Bullish Projections: Analysts suggest a summer rally toward $150,000 if current trends persist.
Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand Rebounds, but Institutional Participation Remains Tepid
On-Chain Recovery
Bitcoin’s apparent demand—measured as the net 30-day change in holdings across investor cohorts—reached 65,000 BTC in late April, reversing from a March trough of -311,000 BTC. This shift suggests reduced selling pressure and potential accumulation by long-term holders.
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However, the absence of substantial fresh capital inflows implies that demand growth is primarily driven by existing investors rather than new entrants. For a sustained breakout, both apparent demand and momentum must align.
ETF Inflows: A Missing Catalyst
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have added just 28,000 BTC in 2025, compared to 200,000 BTC by this time in 2024. Institutional inflows are critical for large-scale price movements, and their sluggish pace may cap near-term upside.
| Metric | 2024 (YTD) | 2025 (YTD) |
|----------------------|------------|------------|
| ETF Net Inflows (BTC) | 200,000 | 28,000 |
| Price Growth (%) | ~120% | ~14% |
Early signs of a pickup in ETF activity are emerging, but levels remain insufficient to propel Bitcoin beyond key resistance zones.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Navigating Macro Pressures
Despite macroeconomic headwinds—such as trade tensions and policy volatility—BTC has shown relative resilience, decoupling from broader risk-asset fluctuations.
Technical Analysis
- Current Price: ~$93,700 (6.3% below $100,000).
- Key Resistance: A breakout above $100,000 could target **$110,000, with $150,000** plausible by summer.
- Support Levels: The $95,000 range is now a critical launchpad for upward moves.
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Institutional Sentiment
Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC, highlights Bitcoin’s evolving role as a hedge against traditional financial instability:
“BTC’s liquidity, scalability, and global accessibility make it a viable alternative to fiat-based instruments. If trade tensions ease and institutional accumulation continues, a rally toward $150,000 is achievable.”
FAQs: Bitcoin Price Trends in May 2025
1. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May 2025?
Bitcoin is 6.3% away from $100,000 as of May 2025. A breakout depends on stronger ETF inflows and macroeconomic stability.
2. Why are ETF inflows slower in 2025?
Institutional caution and reduced speculative activity have contributed to weaker ETF demand compared to 2024’s record pace.
3. What’s the long-term price target for Bitcoin?
Analysts project $150,000 by summer** and **$200,000 by 2026 if adoption and macroeconomic conditions align.
4. How does on-chain demand affect Bitcoin’s price?
Positive apparent demand indicates accumulation, reducing sell pressure and supporting price floors.
5. Is Bitcoin less sensitive to macro volatility now?
Yes, BTC has shown relative decoupling from traditional risk assets, reflecting its maturation as a store of value.
Conclusion: A Cautiously Optimistic Summer
Bitcoin’s May 2025 performance hinges on:
- ETF inflow acceleration to revive institutional momentum.
- Macro stabilization to sustain risk appetite.
- On-chain demand consistency to validate accumulation trends.
While a rally toward $150,000 is possible, investors should monitor ETF flows and macroeconomic developments closely.