Spot Crypto ETFs for XRP, SOL, and DOGE Face High Approval Odds
Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate a 90% or higher likelihood that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve most pending crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including those for XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Litecoin (LTC), and Cardano (ADA).
Key Takeaways:
- 90%+ Approval Odds: ETFs for major altcoins like XRP and SOL are highly likely to gain SEC clearance.
- Regulatory Engagement: SEC’s active feedback on filings signals a collaborative approach with issuers.
- Market Optimism: Polymarket bettors assign a 98% chance to XRP ETF approval in 2025.
Why Crypto ETF Approvals Are Imminent
1. SEC’s Shifting Stance
Recent 19b-4 acknowledgments and S-1 amendment requests indicate the SEC is moving toward approval. Analysts interpret this as a willingness to establish clearer crypto regulations.
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2. High-Probability Assets
- XRP: Filed by multiple issuers, backed by Ripple’s regulatory clarity post-SEC lawsuit.
- SOL and DOGE: Strong community and trading volume bolster their cases.
- SUI Exception: Only asset with sub-60% odds due to lack of regulated futures markets.
Market Sentiment and Predictions
Polymarket Bettors’ Outlook
- XRP ETF: 98% approval chance.
- SOL ETF: 91% approval chance.
- DOGE ETF: 71% approval chance.
FAQs
Q: What makes XRP ETFs likely to succeed?
A: Ripple’s partial legal victory against the SEC in 2023 set a precedent for XRP’s regulatory status.
Q: Why is SUI’s ETF approval uncertain?
A: Absence of regulated futures and unclear regulatory guidance lowers its odds.
Q: How soon could approvals happen?
A: Deadlines vary by filing, but analysts expect decisions by late 2025.
Final Thoughts
With the SEC’s engagement and market demand, crypto ETFs represent a pivotal moment for institutional adoption. XRP, SOL, and DOGE are frontrunners, while SUI faces hurdles.
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Note: This analysis excludes speculative or promotional content, focusing solely on regulatory and market trends.