Introduction
As BTC recently touched its all-time high in USD terms, we've officially entered the main phase of this bull cycle. Unlike the recovery from bear market lows, this stage intensifies market sentiment and volatility. Key characteristics include:
- Shift from BTC dominance to altcoin-led rallies
- Accelerated price surges across crypto assets
- Surging mainstream attention on social media and search engines
This article explores unique aspects of the current cycle through logical analysis, offering actionable strategies while acknowledging the speculative nature of crypto markets. All views represent subjective, time-bound perspectives—not investment advice.
Catalysts Driving This Crypto Bull Market
Four interconnected factors historically propel bull markets:
- BTC Halving (April 2024): Supply shock anticipation
- Monetary Policy Shifts: Consensus around peak interest rates and impending Fed cuts
Regulatory Tailwinds:
- Updated FASB accounting standards enabling fair-value crypto reporting
- SEC-approved spot BTC ETFs post-Grayscale legal victory
- Innovative Asset Classes: Novel business models or tokenization paradigms
The current cycle already exhibits the first three catalysts.
Alpha-Generating Sectors in Historical Context
Each bull cycle's top performers share one trait: they're first-cycle phenomena.
- 2017: ICO platforms (NEO, QTUM)
- 2021: DeFi, GameFi/NFTs (their "breakout" cycle)
Current Cycle's Challenge:
Most "DeFi 2.0," GameFi, NFT, and DePIN projects offer iterative improvements—not paradigm shifts. Two emerging candidates:
- BTC Ecosystem: Ordinals (e.g., ORDI), BTC L2s
Web3 AI:
- Legacy compute networks (Akash, Render)
- New entrants like Bittensor (TAO)
AI's crypto-native credibility remains questionable as an externally driven trend.
Why Altcoin Strategies Need Rethinking
Many portfolios overweight "proven" altcoin sectors expecting repeat outperformance. Reality check:
- Second-cycle projects must prove continued growth potential—a taller order than first-cycle "disproof" challenges.
- L1 Case Study: 2021's alt-L1 boom stemmed from organic demand spikes (DeFi/NFT/GameFi adoption). Current L1 demand growth appears muted.
Key Takeaway: Tempered expectations for alt-L1s and legacy sectors this cycle.
BTC & ETH: Asymmetric Risk-Reward
ETF inflows dominate current bullish narratives, favoring:
- BTC: Strengthening "digital gold" thesis amid institutional adoption
- ETH: Short-term ETF speculation potential (low ETH/BTC ratio)
Long-term Edge:
BTC's store-of-value narrative shows deepening consensus, while ETH faces intensifying scalability competition from L2s/alt-L1s.
2024 Bull Market Strategy Framework
- Core Holdings (60-70%): Heavy BTC + ETH exposure
Satellite Positions:
- Meme Coins: High-risk/high-reward social-driven assets
- BTC Ecosystem: Priority on new asset classes (e.g., inscriptions > L2s)
- Web3 AI: Optional tactical allocation
- Legacy Sectors: Minimal exposure (DeFi, GameFi, etc.)
The Accelerated Cycle Thesis
Historical BTC post-halving returns:
| Cycle | Pre-Halving Year | Halving Year | Post-Halving Year |
|-------------|------------------|--------------|-------------------|
| 2012-2013 | - | +186% | +5372% |
| 2016-2017 | +40.9% | +125% | +1338% |
| 2020-2021 | +93.4% | +273% | +62.3% |
| 2024-2025* | +147.3% (2023) | +60% (Q1'24) | ? |
2024 may deliver the cycle's peak gains—not 2025. Proactive positioning now could outperform delayed entries.
👉 Mastering Crypto Cycles: Advanced Timing Strategies
FAQs
Q: Why overweight BTC over ETH long-term?
A: BTC's institutional adoption as "digital gold" outpaces ETH's evolving tech-competition risks.
Q: Are meme coins serious investments?
A: As purely speculative vehicles, they merit limited allocation despite viral potential.
Q: What's the biggest cycle risk?
A: Macroeconomic reversals (e.g., prolonged high rates) could disrupt ETF inflow narratives.
Q: When to take profits?
A: Consider gradual exits starting late 2024—historical patterns suggest 2025 may see diminished returns.
👉 BTC Halving Countdown & Historical Analysis
Disclaimer: This content represents opinion only, not financial advice. Always conduct independent research.